Farmer's Almanac predicts a warmer winter
FINGER LAKES -- Those who were fans of last year's warmer winter may be in for a repeat performance by Mother Nature. According to the 2016-17 Old Farmer's Almanac, the northeast will see another winter of warmer than average temperatures. However, this period will also include more precipitation than normal as well.The almanac predicts this weather trend for both the lower lakes region, which includes the Rochester area, as well as the Appalachians region which includes the Elmira area.
"Winter will be warmer than normal, with above-normal precipitation," according to the almanac of the lower lakes region. "The coldest periods will be in late December and early to mid-January and from mid-January into early February. Snowfall will be above normal in New York and Illinois and below normal elsewhere, with the snowiest periods in mid-November, late December, early and late January, mid-February, and early March."
Farther south, the almanac predicts the winter will be slightly warmer than normal, with near-normal precipitation and above-normal snowfall. The coldest periods will be in early to mid-January, from late January through early February, and in mid- to late February. The snowiest periods will be in mid-November, late January and early to mid-February.
The Old Farmer's Almanac was first published in 1792, recording and predicting astronomical events. The almanac claims its results are traditionally 80 percent accurate.
These predictions come following a warm winter throughout 2015 and 2016, which saw the warmest December on record in Elmira, which has numbers dating back to 1894. The average temperature during this timeframe was 40.2 degrees Fahrenheit, or 11.2 degrees warmer than normal. This was mostly attributed to El Nino, which had a ridge of high pressure dominating the East Coast, with warm southerly air streaming into the area.
Meanwhile, the Northeast Regional Climate Center's (NRCC) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has no conclusive predictions for the region's winter. The CPC predicts there will be an equal chance for normal, above normal or below normal temperatures throughout the Northeast, parts of the Midwest and the Northwest. This forecast is similar for the precipitation probability during this time.