Weather service predicts warmer winter

FINGER LAKES--With last winter's harsh cold temperatures having such a wide regional impact on farms and wineries, it has many people speculating as to what this upcoming winter will bring. According to area climatologists, the northeast may be in for a slightly warmer winter than anticipated.
"Officially we are actually predicting warmer than normal," Climatologist Samantha Borisoff said. "We are looking at the three months of winter, which are December, January and February, and this is based on the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast, which is kind of the official national forecast for winter. For New York State and most of New England they are calling for an increased chance of above normal temperatures for that area. As far as precipitation goes, they are not really predicting a greater chance of anything right now."
Borisoff said part of the reason for the warmer than normal prediction is due to a 60 to 65 percent chance of El Niño forming. She said El Niño is a warming of Pacific Ocean waters near the equator, which affects U.S. weather patterns, adding the winter outlooks are consistent with what would be expected if El Niño develops.
However, despite the CPC's forecast, other groups have predicted the coming winter to be as cold, if not colder than last year's frigid winter.
"Winter will be colder than normal, with the coldest periods in late December, throughout January, and in early February," according to the 2015 Old Farmer's Almanac's annual weather summary for the Lower Lakes Region from November 2014 to October 2015. "Precipitation will be below normal in the east and near normal in the west. Snowfall will be above normal in most of the region, with the snowiest periods in mid-December, early and mid-January, and early February."
The Almanac predicts an even colder winter than normal for the Appalachian Region which includes Elmira, while predicting the same for the Northeast Region, which include the eastern portion of New York State.
However, according to a Facebook post by the National Weather Service (NWS) in Binghamton, long-range forecasts are often inaccurate due to week-to-week variables. The post encourages readers to be skeptical about what they read regarding the rumors of another bad winter, adding preparation is key when anticipating any winter weather.